A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
